level one
you will see the player’s overall draft position and then his ranking in our top 600 mlb draft prospects so for marcelo mayer it will be 4/1. “4” for being the fourth overall pick in the 2021 mlb draft and “1” for his ranking in our top 600. “nr” means “not ranked” in our top 600.
marcelo mayer – ss (red sox, 1st base and auto, 4/1) – the 4th overall pick in the draft, that spot was probably the floor for him as he was a pick popular for first overall pick in many mock drafts. when I watch a video of him, I see a professional baseball player everywhere. he easily ticks all the boxes and seems natural in everything he does. his hitting tool is the most advanced of them all right now with very good muzzle velocity and strong zone control with great walk rates. his power can never be more, but he should at least be above average with a tune of 25+ at peak. on the downside, he may eventually move down to 3b, but i think this is a lower result than other players receiving the same tag. he won’t steal many bases either. All in all, he has a very high floor with the potential to be a perennial star. he adds a highly collectible team on the red sox and that makes him the best tier 1 guy for me.
jordan lawlar – ss (diamondbacks, 1st baseman and auto, 6/2) – the sixth overall pick in the draft had been on the line for the first overall pick for quite some time. Coming from the Texas setup ranks, the potential five-tool shortstop should be able to hold his own. patient, forward approach at the plate willing to go with the pitch downfield, gap power that needs to be turned into positive power as it grows in his body, and he needs to have enough speed to be a menace on the basepaths. he barely had a chance at professional at-bats before a shoulder injury ended his first season. strong floor and very high ceiling. easy tier 1 player for me but i will put him below mayer at this tier as we didnt get to see lawlar and now he has shoulder surgery plus associated rehab and recovery which will push back his timeline. The Diamondbacks are also one of the least collectible teams, another potential minor drag on their fan value.
brady house – ss (nationals, 1st base only, 6/11) – one of the better known names in this draft class as he has been on the radar and considered a first rounder For a long time. I feel conflicted about whether to include the house in level one, which is where I assume the hobby will value it, or whether I will place it more at the top of the level two range due to its negatives. it does relatively well in our roboscouts rankings ($10 patreon exclusive) with an additional power tool and a loft-adapted swing. An athletic and muscular frame that shines in xwoba’s muzzle velocity and metrics along with an expected interest in the hobby considers him for level one. however, a ground ball rate above 50% and what appears to be an average hitting tool at this point, along with the risk of potentially having to slide him to third base, dwarfs the positives mentioned above. My concern is that House could easily end up as a sub-.250 hitter, even if he ends up with 30-plus bombs on a regular basis, and that’s not in the elite category in today’s game, let alone the all- perennial star I’ll slide the house down to the bottom of level one and be wary of him due to what I see as one floor lower than other guys on this level, but the ceiling on him is undeniable.
benny montgomery – of (rockies, 1st base and auto, 8/20) – montgomery is that rare player where the sky is the limit, and the only thing that limits him is his hitting tool . The athletic Pennsylvania prep outfielder has a plethora of additional tools in power, fielding and arm, while he has double speed. he shouldn’t have a problem staying in center field, even though he’ll likely add more muscle and mass to his svelte 6’4″ frame. all of his other tools, or close to him. that can be a tall order with the current state of rockies player development, but fingers crossed that it happens. was a small showing at the complex in 2021, but hit well, which was a nice bonus to see.a high risk tier 1 player for me given the missing ingredient, but that power speed archetype that montgomery possesses in spades can be buff gold.