With the all-star break drawing to a close on Wednesday, the NBA begins what will be a jam-packed 10-week journey to the 2021 postseason.
The pre-break portion of the 2020-21 schedule turned out to be 533 games over 73 days, an average of 7.3 games per day. post-break schedule calls for *546 games over 68 days, an average of 8.0 per day. That doesn’t seem like a huge difference, but it does cross an important threshold: 7.5 games is half the league.
* There are 547 games left to play, but on Feb. The Feb. 28 game between Chicago and Toronto that was postponed (after the second-half schedule was released) has yet to be rescheduled. could fit in on April 7 or 8 without resulting in a back-to-back-to-back for either team. for now, this breakdown does not include that game.
so there will be many more events in a row. in the first half of the schedule (as played), there were 6.6 consecutive games per team. in the second half (as planned), there are 8.6 per team. at least one of the two teams will be in the second half of a consecutive game in 219 (40%) of the 546 games. that’s a 32% increase (168/533) in the first half (as played).
Two quick reminders about this season…
1. it is a 72-game season, with each team playing two games against each of the 15 teams in the opposite conference and three games against each of the other 14 teams within its own conference. (15×2) + (14×3) = 72
2. the top six teams in each conference qualify for the playoffs. teams 7-10 qualify for a three-game play-in tournament, where the seventh- and eighth-place teams play for no. 7 seeds. the loser of that game would then play the winner of a game between the ninth- and tenth-place teams for the final playoff spot.
10 busy weeks
the memphis grizzlies and the san antonio spurs are the teams with the most work to do, each scheduled to play 40 games in the next 68 days. they are the only two teams without two-day breaks and each have 11 consecutive games in the next 10 weeks.
both teams have more games away from home than at home. The Grizzlies have one of the three longest road trips on the second-half schedule, seven games in 11 days from April 16-26. The last six games of that trip are against teams — Milwaukee, Denver (2x), Portland (2x) and the Clippers — with winning records. and the end of that journey is the beginning of a stretch in which the grizzlies will play 16 games in the final 22 days of the season.
One positive for the grizzlies is that they have a league-high 14 games against teams that played the day before. despite their own 11 straight games, they have more *rest advantage games (8) than rest disadvantage games (5) in the next 10 weeks and if the games are played as scheduled, they will end up with the best player in the league. differential (14 against 6). unfortunately, they’re only 2-4 in break advantage games so far.
* break advantage = did not play the day before. the opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back. break handicap = playing the second game of a back-to-back. the opponent did not play the day before. in the first half, teams went 78-61 (.561) in games with a bye, 46-31 at home and 32-30 away.
spurs have one of the longest second-half home stays, nine games in 15 days from March 22 to April 5. but that’s preceded by a five-game road trip and followed by a stretch where they play 17 of 22 on the road with seven back-to-backs. After that 22-game stretch, his remaining schedule is just a two-game home series against the Suns. One silver lining is that the Spurs have five two-game series (the most in the league) to help cut down on travel over the next 10 weeks.
But the Spurs don’t just have one of the busiest second-half schedules. they have the second hardest when it comes to cumulative opponent win percentage.
only half (20) of their 40 games are against the other 13 teams coming off the break with winning records, but 13 of those 20 are against the top half of that group (the seven teams over .600) . They still have to play their three games against the Suns, along with two against the Clippers, Bucks and Sixers. Eight of those 13 are in the Spurs’ last 10 games of the season, a stretch that also includes a game against the Blazers. The Spurs are playing seven games in the final 10 days of the season, a stretch that takes them from the West Coast to the East Coast and then back home.
The Spurs come out of the break seventh in the West, in good position to return to the postseason after seeing their 22-year playoff streak come to an end last season. given how tough their remaining schedule is, getting back into the top six (where they’d avoid play-in) or just staying in the top eight (where they’d just have to win one play-in game) is going to be tough.
Western conference breakdown
Breakdown of Remaining Western Schedule
b2b = consecutive games ra, rda = rest odds, rest disadvantages opppct = opponent’s cumulative winning percentage > .500 = games against the 14 teams currently above .500 opo = games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 offensive efficiency oppd = games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 defensive efficiency
Western conference notes…
- the mavs have one of the easiest schedules in the west in terms of opponent strength, and it’s easier late in the game when they play 10 of their last 11 games against teams that they are currently at or below .500. but they have nine games behind by rest, with five of them in a stretch of 14 games in 22 days from April 21 to May 12.
- The Nuggets have the heaviest remaining home schedule in the West, with 20 of their 36 games on the baseball field. After opening the second half in Memphis on Friday, they will play 12 of their next 16 games at home, with three of the four away games part of a smaller stretch in which they will play eight in a row against teams that currently have losing records. .
- the warriors have the worst record (7-15) in games played among the 14 teams that currently have winning records. and its second half begins with games against the Clippers, Jazz and Lakers. but after that, only nine of their last 32 games are against those other 13 teams.
- the rockets have the league’s toughest remaining schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage, with 23 of their 38 games coming against the 14 teams that currently have winning records. The board actually starts out relatively easy, but from March 31 through May 14, 20 of the Rockets’ 25 games will be against those top 14 teams.
- The Clippers have the fewest games remaining (34), with a 17-day stretch (April 24 – May 8) where they play just five. but they are also only playing three games against opponents who played the night before. they have four more games with a bye (6) than games with a bye (2). they’re 5-0 in rest-disadvantage games so far, so maybe that’s not such a bad thing. The two games with bye advantage come at the end of a nine-game homestand (March 27-April 11) that includes games against the Sixers, Bucks, Nuggets, Lakers, Blazers and Suns.
- the lakers‘ don’t. the No. 1 defense has one of the toughest remaining schedules relative to opposing offenses. They are also one of two Western teams (the Spurs are the other) with the most games remaining against the Eastern Conference. With a 7-5 record in interconference games thus far, they will play 18 of their last 35 games against the East. They have a four-game homestand that includes games against Philadelphia (March 25) and Milwaukee (March 31), as well as a seven-game road trip that includes a stop in Brooklyn (April 10).
- The timberwolves have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league, and it’s tougher early on. As of Saturday, they have a streak of five games in seven nights where the blazers (x 2), lakers and suns (x 2) play.
- If the 11th-place Pelicans are going to move up to the play-in tournament, they’ll have to do so against a tough schedule. they are tied (with the Clippers) for the fewest games remaining with a bye advantage (2). they are also tied (with the Rockets and Wolves) for the fewest games remaining against the 14 teams that currently have losing records (13). two of them are this week, when they welcome the wolves and dig on Thursday and Friday. then they will play eight games in a row against teams with winning records.
- The Thunder will have a chance to play against the Eastern Conference, with 17 games against the opposite conference, including 10 against teams currently ranked 5th-12th. th place in the east.
- the suns have the largest difference between rest advantage games (10) and rest disadvantage games (6). they also have two soft five-game homestands (one starting Saturday). but they will play 12 of their last 16 games on the road and 14 of their last 17 against teams currently over .500, with a five-game trip that includes visits to milwaukee, philadelphia and brooklyn.
- The Blazers‘ 10 straight is tied for the most after the Grizzlies and Spurs. The first of 10 (and also the first of three straight two-game series) is Saturday and Sunday in Minnesota. They are one of two teams (the Suns are the other) with a trip to the “Florida Triangle” in the second half, playing three straight games in Florida from March 25-28. The back end of their second-half schedule (when they could get CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic back) is tougher than the front end.
- The 30th-ranked kings defense has the easiest remaining schedule in the league relative to opposing offenses. they only have six games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 in offense and 14 against teams that rank in the bottom 10. that includes eight games against the last three (minnesota, cleveland and oklahoma city).
- jazz has the easiest remaining schedule in the league, in part because they don’t have to play the team with the best record in the league. they also have the heaviest remaining schedule in the West, with 25 of their 36 games inside the conference. four of their first seven games (including a visit from the networks on March 24) are bye games, but they’ll have just one after that.
upper east
There’s a big three-team race at the top of the Eastern Conference. Coming off the break, the Milwaukee Bucks are in third place, two games behind the first-place Philadelphia 76ers and a game and a half behind the Brooklyn Nets /strong >.
the bucks have the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams in the top east. but one of the reasons is the five games they have against the other two. so, while playing from behind and having the toughest road ahead of them, the males control their own destiny. he does not. 1 seed for the third consecutive season is certainly within reach.
in addition, the bucks will play all five games against philadelphia and brooklyn at home or with bye advantage. Next Wednesday (March 17), they’ll be in Philadelphia, with the Sixers playing the Knicks the night before. On April 22-24, the Bucks will host the Sixers in a two-game series, playing to another bye lead in the first game. And on May 2-4, the networks will be in Milwaukee for another two-game series.
The remaining dollar schedule is heavy in the East (23 of 36 in the conference). but they have a big six-game road trip (March 29-April 8) out west that starts with two games in Los Angeles. and includes visits to portland, golden state and dallas. they are currently 5-5 against the nine western teams with winning records.
The Sixers also have a two-game stop in Los Angeles, facing the Lakers and Clippers on March 25-27. That’s part of a stretch (ending with their two-game series at Milwaukee) where they play 13 of 18 games against teams currently over .500. But when they leave Milwaukee, only one of their last 12 games (May 2 at San Antonio) is against a team that comes out of recess with a winning record.
The sixers have eight games down by rest, with two of them against the bucks, as noted above. That first meeting with the Bucks (at home) is the end of a streak of five games in seven nights to start the second-half schedule. They have another five-on-seven stretch in May, starting with that visit to San Antonio.
The Nets are one of two teams (the Knicks are the other) without a streak of five games in seven nights. they also have the easiest schedule in the east when it comes to cumulative opponent winning percentage.
But if you’re looking for a stretch of that that will test the networks’ 26th-ranked defense, grab their 11 games from April 20 through May 8. Eight of those 11 games (including his two games at Milwaukee against the second-ranked Bucks) will be against teams that currently rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency. two of the other three are against the 12th-ranked Celtics and the 13th-ranked Mavs, teams that certainly could be higher ranked by then.
Eastern conference breakdown
Breakdown of Remaining Eastern Time
b2b = consecutive games ra, rda = rest odds, rest disadvantages opppct = opponent’s cumulative winning percentage > .500 = games against the 14 teams currently above .500 opo = games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 offensive efficiency oppd = games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 defensive efficiency
notes from the eastern conference…
- The Falcons are just 1-5 in bye games, but have a league-low three bye games in the next 10 weeks. And those three games are against Cleveland (Sunday), Detroit and Orlando. The Falcons’ time to gain some traction in the Eastern Conference is now, as they begin their second-half schedule with five games against teams with losing records. that stretch is followed by the longest second-half road trip by any team: eight games in 13 days, starting with two in l.a.
- The Celtics have seen the fourth-biggest jump in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions, ranking 16th on defense after ranking fourth all season pass. Their defense will get off to a rocky start in the second half, with six of their first 11 games (with a game in Brooklyn on Thursday and a two-game series in Milwaukee) against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. But things will be easier after that, and the Celtics will finish their schedule with five straight games against teams currently no higher than 23rd in offensive efficiency. overall, they have the third-easiest schedule in the league relative to opposing offenses.
- April 10 is a kind of split point in the schedule for the second half of the hornets, separating the road side from the home side. They start with a three-game homestand that includes a big game against the Raptors on Saturday. but then they will play 11 of their next 13 games on the road. Starting April 11, the Hornets will play 14 of 19 at home before playing their last two road games.
- The Bulls, having played 19 of their 34 games against the opposite conference, have the heaviest remaining schedule in the East, with 26 of their 37 games (including each of his last 17) within the conference. they also have the toughest remaining schedule in the league regarding opposing defenses, with 15 of their 37 games coming against teams that currently rank in the top 10 defensively and only nine against teams that rank in the bottom 10. and the hardest part in that sense is the beginning. nine of his first 13 games are against top 10 defenses. That includes two games each against the fourth-place Jazz and ninth-place Spurs.
- the cavs are tied (with phoenix and toronto) for the most games with a bye advantage (10) over the next 10 weeks. They are also tied (with Detroit and San Antonio) for the most games against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 defensively. their first two games of the second half are bye-advantage games (roads) against the 29th-ranked Pelicans (Friday) and the 23rd-ranked Falcons (Sunday).
- The Pistons have the heaviest remaining home schedule in the East, with 20 of their 36 games at Little Caesars Arena. That includes nine of their last 11. They’re also tied with Brooklyn for the fewest games (8) against the top 10 defenses in the league. And half of those eight games are against the Spurs in ninth place and the Thunder in 10th.
- The pacers have the largest discrepancy between rest advantage games (3) and rest disadvantage games (9). his first four games are his toughest stretch of the second half. After visiting the Lakers (Friday), Suns (bye) and Nuggets, they return home to receive the nets next Wednesday.
- The heat has the second easiest schedule in the east when it comes to opponents’ cumulative winning percentage. they start the second half with seven straight games against teams currently at .500 or less, though the first five are a streak of five games in seven days. they have a more difficult stretch and with many trips of eight games in 12 days from April 13 to 24.
- The knicks‘s remaining six straight games are the fewest for any team in the league. But they have one of the toughest five-game stretches in the league, the end of a six-game road trip (May 2-11) that begins in Houston but then takes them to Memphis, Denver, Phoenix and L.A. to play for both the clippers and the lakers.
- the magic has the most difficult remaining program in the east, and the most difficult part is the beginning. thirteen of his first 14 games are against teams currently at (two games against the Heat) or above .500. The end of that run, a five-game road trip (March 28-April 4) in which they will take on the Lakers, Clippers, Pelicans, Jazz and Nuggets, is one of the toughest five-game stretches for any team in the future.
- The raptors have the toughest five-game stretch of the remaining schedule. It kicks off with a bye handicap game at home against the Nets on April 27 and continues with a four-game road trip where they take on the Nuggets, Jazz, Lakers and Clippers. the good news is that it’s one of only two trips out of more than three games. and if that Feb. game 28 against the bulls is rescheduled, the raps will be tied with the pistons for the heaviest remaining schedule at home in the east, going 20 of 36 at amalie arena in tampa.
- the Wizards have the most games remaining against the 14 teams that currently have losing records. most of them are in the last five weeks, when they will play 14 of their last 19 games (including each of their last six) against teams coming out of the break under .500.
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john schuhmann is a senior analytics analyst for nba.com. you can email him here, find his archive here, and follow him on twitter.
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