College Football Odds, Prediction, Pick for UTEP vs. Boise State: The Spread Bet to Make for Friday Night&x27s Showdown

    College football odds week 2

    boise state looks to bounce back from a weekend opener loss to ucf when hosting the utep miners 2-0 in the smurf turf.

    utep is off to a 2-0 start after beating new mexico state and bethune cookman to open the season. Prior to this season, UTEP had won a total of just five games in the previous four seasons, so this is a huge upgrade for Dana Dimel in her fourth year at the helm.

    Reading: Boise state vs utep prediction

    however, boise state is a big step up from the competition, to say the least. We’ll see Friday night if the miners have turned the corner or not.

    miners offensive

    The good news for utep on offense is that he’s recovered 78%, according to tarp, including starting quarterback gavin hardison, who has already thrown for four touchdowns and 11.07 yards per attempt, though that was against two cupcakes, so there’s not much to learn from those two performances.

    however, hardison is throwing the best wide receiver tandem in the usa conference. USA, Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett, who have already combined for 300 yards and three touchdowns in their first two games.

    They should be able to attack the weak point of the boise state defense, which is their secondary.

    Because they’ve been ahead in both games, the Miners’ offense has been intense, running the ball at 68% for 5.3 yards per carry, which is a big step up from last season when they gained just 3.7 yards per carry. .

    The improvement should continue as utep has all five starters back on an offensive line that has been ranked no. 11 run-blocking units, per pff, during his first two games.

    miners defense

    Defense is the biggest question mark for miners this season.

    yeah, they allowed new mexico state just three points, but their performance against bethune cookman was pretty worrisome. the wildcats gained 7.1 yards per play and 9.8 yards per attempt through the air, and that will be utep’s biggest drop this season.

    During the offseason, top cornerback Duron Lowe transferred to Liberty, leaving the secondary miner with only two starters from last season, which wasn’t ideal to begin with.

    In 2020, the utep secondary allowed 8.56 yards per attempt and was the 96th team in coverage, per pff. so it’s going to be a long night trying the closed hank bachmeier and khalil shakur.

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    However, utep’s defensive line has some talent, and if he can control the line of scrimmage against an average offensive line at best, he may have a chance.

    the miners return with their entire defensive line from last season, a unit that ranked in the top 50 in yards and havoc on the defensive line, so they will be key in this game if the miners are going to cover the big difference.

    boise state got off to a poor start in the andy avalos era, losing 36-31 to ucf in orlando after leading 24-14 at the half. boise state gained a total of 59 yards in the second half after looking unstoppable for most of the first.

    He’ll hope to turn things around against a lesser opponent, but the question isn’t whether he’ll win or not. is if he can cover a 26-point spread against an inferior opponent.

    For the past 10 years, blue grass hasn’t been magical for covering large expanses.

    broncos attack

    New offensive coordinator Tim Plow didn’t get off to a great start against UCF, as his high-flying offense gained just 4.4 yards per play.

    plough was most recently the offensive coordinator at uc davis, where he led the fcs in passing for the past three seasons.

    However, Saturday’s starter might be up in the air because Bachmeier didn’t look too good running Plow’s offense, averaging just 6.74 yards per attempt and throwing one of the worst game-ending interceptions I’ve ever seen.


    waiting his turn at usc transfer jack sears, who impressed in his limited time last season, earning a 93.3 pff rating on 33 setbacks.

    Whoever is starting out, however, will need to take advantage of utep’s secondary and should be able to, as he has one of the best receivers in the country in shakur.

    shakur was rated no. 9 receiver last season, per pff, after catching 52 balls on 76 targets for 719 yards and six touchdowns in just seven games.

    boise state’s problem in this matchup will be in the trenches and in the running game.

    against ucf, he gained just 26 yards on 20 attempts. Boise State brought back four offensive linemen, but it doesn’t look like the rushing game is going to improve any time soon.

    The Broncos ranked 110th in offensive line yards, 123rd in rushing explosiveness, and gained just 3.3 yards per carry in 2020. So going up against a good UTEP defensive line will be a challenge.


    bronco defense

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    boise state was in the top 20 nationally in terms of pass and run success rate allowed last season, but was set on fire by gus malzahn’s offensive sept. 2. Dillon Gabriel threw for four touchdowns and 8.6 yards per attempt, while UCF had 5.3 rushing yards.

    the secondary is going to be a big problem for boise state going forward because it lost its top two corners and was the 94th ranked team in terms of coverage last season, according to pff.

    utep has an experienced quarterback and two of the best receivers in the us conference. So he should be able to shoot the ball consistently on Friday night.

    The forward seven return much of the talent and were good overall against the run last season, ranking in the top 40 in defensive line yards, spike rate and power hit rate allowed.

    Then, it will be interesting to see whether or not utep’s running game can run the ball consistently against the Broncos’ front seven.

    Analysis of the confrontation between utep and boise state

    Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how utep and boise state statistically match:

    There are a couple of ways for utep to cover here.

    first, he needs to throw the ball consistently at boise state high school, which he shouldn’t have a problem doing since the broncos are breaking two new corners and owned a high school in the bottom 40 in college football last last season.

    Second, he has to stop Boise State’s running game, which he should be able to do with their entire defensive line back from last season, a group that ranked 44th in defensive line yards allowed.

    If the miners are successful in those two areas, they should be able to cover the 26 point spread.

    utep vs. boise state betting pick

    boise state opened as a -27 favorite, but quickly moved to -25.5 on some books.

    I have boise state projected only as a -19.05 favorite, and if you look at collin wilson’s pro projections, he has boise state projected as a -24.3 favorite.

    at the time of writing, there is still a +26.5 on betmgm, which I think still has a bit of value.

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    choose: utep +26.5

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