not sure how much wine i drank over thanksgiving weekend but apparently i drank enough to start freaking out because that’s the only way to explain the nfl headlines i’ve been reading on the internet in the last days.
I mean, I’m 99% sure I read a headline that said the Ravens and Steelers played on a Wednesday. is that real? and the 49ers move to arizona? And the Broncos had to play a game with no quarterbacks on their roster? how is any of this possible?
Reading: Cbs nfl picks week 13
everything i just listed sounds like something i’d come up with in a drunken wacko game with an nfl theme. plus i will cut back on wine for thanksgiving next year, well unless my selections are good this week then i might go the opposite way.
Speaking of picks, now that week 12 is finally over, we can get to the picks for week 13!
Actually, before we get to the picks, here’s a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from all of the cbssports.com nfl pundits by clicking here. If you don’t click, I won’t be offended. However, I will be offended if you don’t subscribe to the cbssports.com nfl newsletter, which my bosses have put me in charge of for some reason.
If you sign up, it’s like an early Christmas present for both of us: I get more signups and you get an email from me every day of the week, which is really like five gifts. if you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. I promise not to spam you and I promise not to send you pictures of my cat.
also i would like you to know that i recorded a podcast on monday night with will brinson and ryan wilson and we spent a very entertaining 45 minutes debating whether the eagles should blow things up and start over after their loss to the falcons marine. . if you want to listen, and you definitely should, you can do so below.
okay let’s get to these picks because if we don’t do it now the nfl is going to reschedule five different games in week 13 and I’m going to have to rewrite this whole thing and trust me nobody wants that.
nfl week 13
cleveland (8-3) at tennessee (8-3)
1p. m. et (cb)
On the list I made of all the crazy things that happened in 2020, let me just say that the cleveland browns who are vying for a playoff spot at this point in the season are definitely at the top. it is four points ahead of the pandemic, seven points ahead of murder hornets, nine points ahead of locusts, and two points ahead of the squirrel that somehow contracted bubonic plague. I mean, I can’t remember the last time the Browns played a big game this late in the season, but here we are. Having said that, we probably all should have seen this coming, because browns making it to the super bowl in the one season where fans won’t actually be able to make it to the super bowl would definitely be the brownest thing ever.
As for this game, if you love forward passes, you probably won’t want to watch it, because we may not see a single one between these two teams on Sunday. this game is giving us the nfl of no. 1 rushing attack (cleveland) against no. 3 running game and I expect all the running backs on both teams to put up big numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb and Kareem hunted for the top 100 yards.
For me, the big difference in this game is in the quarterback. with the titans, i feel like ryan tannehill is a perfect match for henry, but in cleveland, i feel like baker mayfield slows down the offense. in fact, if the browns got rid of mayfield and just passed the ball straight to chubb, i think that would arguably make them a better team.
the browns are good this year and should make the playoffs, but this week they are running into a team that has the best running back, the best quarterback and really, the best everything. well the browns have myles garrett and he’s a much better pass rusher than anyone tennessee has but the titans are better at everything else and what i’m trying to say here is i’m beating tennessee in a blowout.
the selection: titans 34-20 on browns
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la rams (7-4) in arizona (6-5)
4:05 PM m. et (fox)
We are 13 weeks into the season and I must admit I still have no idea what to do with the Cardinals. just when i was starting to think they might actually be good, they come out of their week 8 and fall flat on their face. In the four weeks since his bye, they’ve gone 1-3 and the only reason they haven’t gone 0-4 is because Kyler Murray threw a miraculous game-winning Hail Mary against the Bills in Week 10. If that Hail Didn’t happen , the cardinals would have had the same november record as the jets (0-4) and as I think I say almost every week, if I mention you in the same sentence as the jets, there’s about a 99.9% chance that I’m going to pick you to lose your game that week. you never want to be mentioned in the same sentence as jets under any circumstances. last week i mentioned matt patricia in the same sentence as jets and she look what happened to her.
I’m not sure why the Cardinals have broken down, but I think one of their problems is that Kyler Murray’s shoulder still seems to be bothering him. he was injured in week 11 against the seahawks and has seemed hesitant to run ever since. For most teams, it’s usually not a big deal when their quarterback doesn’t run the ball, but it’s a problem for the Cardinals because Murray running the ball is like 90% of their offense. It’s not just him running that opens up his offense, but the threat of him running. During Arizona’s upset loss to New England on Sunday, Murray was hesitant to run and seemed a little concerned at the thought of taking big hits.
the problem for murray this week is that no one delivers bigger hits than aaron donald. i think the rams are going to put jalen ramsey on deandre hopkins and challenge murray to throw elsewhere. I also think this is the worst possible matchup the Cardinals could have had this week and that’s because Arizona has never beat Sean McVay. Since McVay was hired in 2017, he has gone 6-0 against Arizona and the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of those games. I see that streak continuing on Sunday.
the selection: charges 31-24 over the cardinals
new england (5-6) in l.a. chargers (3-8)
4:25 PM m. et (fox)
Over the last few years the chargers have made some pretty embarrassing decisions, you know, like when they left san diego, but nothing was worse than all the decisions they made during the fourth quarter against the bills on sunday. every time the porters made a decision in the room, it quickly became clear that they would have been better off doing the opposite. I’m not going to cover everything they did wrong, because we’d be here for three hours, but here’s a look at what they did wrong at the last minute.
I mean, look at those last 10 seconds: the loaders can’t even execute a qb sneak properly. Am I bitter that I chose the chargers to cover the spread, what would have happened if they had marked there? obviously. the Chargers have no idea what they’re doing and I’m completely convinced that if their coaching staff did the opposite of everything they thought they should do, this team would be 11-0 right now. instead, they are 3-8.
This week, we have possibly the worst trained team in football playing against the best trained team in football and when that happens, I never pick the worst trained team. Earlier this season, the Chargers actually looked good, but Justin Herbert has been slowly regressing in recent weeks and if you’re a rookie quarterback who’s regressing, the last coach you’d want to face is Bill Belichick. The Patriots coach is 20-6 all time against rookie quarterbacks, which means I definitely can’t pick the team with the rookie quarterback.
The Pick: Patriots 23-20 over Chargers
buffalo (8-3) vs san francisco (5-6) in arizona
Monday, 8:15 p.m. m. et (espn)
If you’ve ever been kicked out of your house over the holidays, then you know exactly how the 49ers feel now after being kicked out of Levi’s Stadium for the next three weeks. Normally, I’d say getting kicked out is a bad thing, but I’m starting to think no one is happier about the 49ers being forced to move than the 49ers. I mean, just think about it: For one thing, they don’t have to play at Levi’s Stadium this week, which is good, because they’re 1-4 at Levi’s Stadium this year. the 49ers probably expect the entire stadium to burn down while they’re gone.
the other reason the 49ers are probably fans of moving to arizona for this week’s game is because there’s a 99% chance the bills will get ptsd as soon as they walk into the ballpark on monday and that’s because the last time they played at phoenix university stadium, this happened:
Although the accounts have since recovered from that loss, they still apparently have no idea how to save a Hail Mary because the Chargers also completed one during Buffalo’s win over the Angels on Sunday. That said, as long as this game doesn’t boil down to a Hail Mary, I like beads.
My biggest problem with the 49ers is that they’ve had issues with extremely mobile quarterbacks. they couldn’t beat russell wilson, they couldn’t beat kyler murray and i think they’re going to have some serious trouble trying to stop josh allen.
the pick: bills 30-27 over 49ers
lock of the week
n.y. giants (4-7) in seattle (8-3)
4:05 PM m. et (fox)
I know what you’re thinking and yes I agree: the “lock of the week” should probably start showing up with some kind of warning. I’m not sure what that warning should be, but I’m thinking something along the lines of “although the pick itself is almost always correct, you should pick the opposing team that performs the breech pick against the spread.”
Remember when I missed every Thursday game for the first two months of the season, well, that’s what “lockout of the week” has become. although I’m 5-1 in the last six weeks, I’m 0-6 against the spread. it’s so bad it’s almost good.
That winless streak would have ended last week if Giants coach Joe Judge, who is supposedly an expert on special teams, actually knew anything about special teams. I picked the Giants to cover as a 5.5-point favorite in Cincinnati and the only reason the Giants didn’t cover against the Bengals is because they allowed a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown.
I’m so upset with the giants that I’m making them “lock of the week” for the second week in a row, except this time I’m picking them to lose. Look, I’ll be honest, this game has disaster written all over it for the giants. First of all, they may not have Daniel Jones, who is battling a hamstring injury. Basically, the Giants have two options at quarterback: a lame Jones or a Colt McCoy, and if those are their only two options, they better not have any options.
also the giants have scored the third fewest points in the nfl this year and now they will have to face the third highest scoring team in the league and call me crazy but i dont think its the quarterback situation going to help things here. basically the giants go on a shootout and all they have in their pocket is the monopoly thimble. Sure, the thimble is good, because whoever has it always wins the monopoly, but it’s not going to help you in a shootout. Oh, did I mention the Seahawks are the only NFC team still undefeated at home this year? Because the Seahawks are the only NFC team that remains undefeated at home this year.
The Pick: Seahawks 34-17 over GiantsWeek record: 12-2 straight, 6-8 against the spread
nfl week 13: all the rest
saints 23-16 over hawks lions 20-16 over bears dolphins 27-13 over bengalsvikings 30-20 over jaguarsraiders 24-17 over jetscolts 27-20 over texanspackers 37-27 over eaglessteelers 31-17 over washingtonchiefs 34-20 over broncosravens 27 -17 over jeans
goodbye: buccaneers, panthers
Best Pick: Last week, I predicted the Patriots underdogs would beat the Cardinals by three points and guess what happened? the underdog patriots beat the cardinals by three points. Now, did you know that Bill Belichick was going to devise a game plan that would almost completely wipe out Arizona’s offense? of course i did. Going into Sunday’s game, Belichick was 37-2 at home against first- or second-year quarterbacks, and as you probably know, Kyler Murray is a first- or second-year quarterback. This game is over before it started.
Worst Pick: There is no team I have picked worse this year than the Atlanta Falcons, which means I should have known last week that I was supposed to do the opposite of my first instinct, which was choosing them to lose. The hawks have been on my mind all season: when I weave, they weave. when I zag, they make pizza. when i invite them to dinner they cancel and go to arby’s and then flaunt the fact that they canceled me by sharing pics on instagram with the cashier at arby’s. he is out of control. I’m so over the hawks. I’m so over Arby’s. I’m so on top of it all.
Finally, if you’re still reading, you may be wondering which teams I’ve picked well this year and here’s the answer:
Teams I pick 10-1 this year (up): Chiefs, Jets, SteelersTeams I pick 9-2 this year: Jaguars, Chargers, Packers, giants, ravens
Longest winning streak:Jaguars (eight straight games correct)Longest losing streak: Falcons (four straight games incorrect).
Also, there’s no team I’ve been worse to pick on than the Falcons (3-8). i guess this is karma’s way of telling me that he shouldn’t have said all those bad things about atlanta when i lived there for three years.
up week 12: 12-4your overall: 112-63-1
against spread at week 12: 6-9-1overall: 80-93-3
you can find john breech on facebook or twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably at the doctor trying to figure out if these wine hallucinations are real or not.