carolina coast vs. state of arkansas dues
coastal carolina became a crowd favorite after the chanticleers’ dazzling 2020 regular season that saw them finish the regular season undefeated and lose to the liberty in their bowl game by three.
coastal has an efficient offense and found plenty of coverage last season for their sponsors and became possibly the most watched non-power five team in the country.
chants have started 2021 right where they left off in 2020, covering spreads and beating inferior opponents. The Chanticleers are 11-3-2 against the spread dating back to last season and have some of the highest production numbers in the entire country, led by quarterback Grayson McCall.
survived a close encounter with buffalo on the road, 28-25, in the one game they haven’t covered in 2021, but have otherwise managed citadel, kansas, ul monroe and umass.
Head Coach Jamey Chadwell doesn’t slow down his offense with leads because style points are important to his group-of-five program that needs to not only win, but also dominate lower-level opponents. that makes coast a highly palatable favorite with extra free time to prepare for your next game anyway.
the chanticleers take on a team from arkansas state that has struggled to stop anyone all year.
The 55 points allowed to memphis, 52 to washington, 41 to tulsa and 59 to georgia southern don’t inspire much confidence in the red wolves to stop one of the country’s most possession offenses on the coast.
Carolina Coast Offense
It’s hard to fault the chanticleers offense which, while off a weak schedule, ranks 12th in rushing hit rate and 11th in offensive line yards and combines rushing efficiency with excellent passing numbers and ability for big plays.
the singers are the no. 1 big-play offense in the country for five weeks of the season, and the statistical profile is very similar to last year’s team with a little more explosiveness.
mccall leads a ball-control offense that fell in love with long scoring drives last season and is now adding some more oomph with all the production coming back. Ranking ninth in havoc allowed and 33rd in finishing kills, the chanticleers avoid negative plays and are excellent at scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
the biggest matchup mismatch in this entire game is the chanticleers offense against the red wolves defense, and considering last year and the first five weeks of the season, arkansas state has almost no shape to stop the coastal offensive unless the chanticleers stop themselves. .
carolina coastal defense
Coastal’s defense doesn’t have much of a statistical advantage against a Red Wolves offense that has been up and down for five games.
the state of arkansas has reached 30 and even 50 in shootings this year, and no. priority 1 for the coast has to be to limit explosive plays.
the chanticleers rank 28th in big play defense, but have never played an offense as explosive as arkansas state. Coast’s solid pass rush should upset the Red Wolves on the passing plays, which Arkansas State runs most of the time.
Coastal’s defense has also been average in the red zone defensively, so that’s another important key if Coastal wants to cover this 19 point away gap.
if arkansas state has to kick field goals or chase points, that’s encouraging for the singers. But if Arkansas State is producing touchdowns, it’s hard for the coast to get enough of a margin here.
arkansas state felony
If Arkansas State wants any chance of keeping the game even, their offense will hit 30 on Thursday night.
The Red Wolves rank 26th in big plays and 32nd in late game drives, so if they can break up some explosive plays to move down the field and then score touchdowns on those drives, they can try to keep this game competitive. .
arkansas state doesn’t have much success on the ground, but they also don’t run the ball much anyway. As a passing offense, the Red Wolves rank 33rd in passing success rate, an area in which they have a moderate advantage against Carolina’s coastal defense.
The offense likes to roll with a fast-paced game plan, but might have to slow down a bit if they want to keep their defense from wearing down.
given how slow and methodical the coast is, the chanticleers could dominate the time of possession, and arkansas state’s quick scores could be a long-term negative for the red wolves defense.
arkansas state defense
pff ranks this arkansas state defenseman 124th in tackles and 126th in coverage. played the high-influence midgame minutes surrounding halftime as poorly as any team in the country.
arkansas state ranks 129th in rushing success rate and plays a very successful running offense that likes to run the ball. The Red Wolves allowed big plays after big plays against Memphis, Tulsa and Washington, all of whom have been embarrassed offensively in recent weeks by Temple, Houston and Michigan, respectively.
playing in arkansas state is the right place for any offense, and the coastal offense is already firing on all cylinders.
There are few matchups worse for the Red Wolves than the Chanticleers, as Arkansas State won’t be able to get off the field and creates almost no havoc to disrupt McCall’s offense.
The only thing the Red Wolves have done well as a defense is rush the passer, but McCall gets the ball off quickly anyway.
analysis of the confrontation between the coast of carolina and the state of arkansas
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the coast of Carolina and the state of Arkansas statistically match:
data via college football data, footballoutsiders, sp+, pff, and sportsource analytics.
coastal carolina vs. arkansasstate
arkansas state’s fast-paced, passing offense should get some points on the board in this game and move the ball against a chanticleers defense that really hasn’t been tested.
but on the other side of the ball, coastal has commanding advantages in explosiveness, hit rate, havoc, and finishing attacks. that means coast will move the ball easily, produce touchdowns and the chanticleers are not a team that feels ahead if they are 14 late.
coastal will try to dump in the garbage time, and that makes him a more attractive heavy favorite, especially with more rest before the next chanticleers game against the appalachian state.
pff rates the huge differences in the tackling and coverage ability of these defenses, and coast’s ability to dominate the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second half (middle 8) makes him a An attractive live spot in the second quarter as well, especially if you’re off to a slow start and Arkansas scores a little early.
the market dipped briefly after the open at 17.5 to 16.5 and has gone back up past 17. I wouldn’t play the last 20 here and I definitely wouldn’t bet on 21 but coastal is a very public team so it will be It’s important to watch how the market reacts to the island’s kick-off on Thursday night.
don’t be surprised if there is some market rebuy if this line hits 21, but the pairing favors the coast so much that I like this one at 19.5 or better.