Wideouts bounced back in a big way last year. overall, receivers scored a record 532 touchdowns to boost their fantasy numbers. their running back counterparts did not average as many fantasy points per game in ppr based on the averages of the top 12 (highest 0.3), top 24 (highest 1.9) or top 36 (highest 1.8) . I can’t remember the last time it happened.
but it may not happen again. Due to training camp injuries to receivers like Keinan Allen and Amari Cooper, uncertain situations surrounding Antonio Brown and T.Y. hilton and the lack of reliable pass receivers, the position has become not only heavy but incredibly popular! between fourth and 20th overall, expect all of the top 8 receivers to be gone.
Reading: Fantasy football draft tiers 2019
more preparation for the fantasy draft
- qb tiers 7.0
- rb tiers 7.0
- te tiers 7.0
- jamey eisenberg’s sleepers, buds and busts
- the sleepers, buds and busts of heath cummings
the good news? the position is rich in receivers with a 900-1,200-yard profile. so missing out on those top eight receivers isn’t such a bad thing.
In addition to knowing your lineup requirements and scoring system, you need to answer these questions before selecting:
- How risk averse are you?
- How desperately do you want to fill your starting lineup with obviousness?
- How deep do you think this position is?
- Are you good at finding replacement catchers outside of waivers?
The first two questions go hand in hand: Wide receivers are generally safer than their running counterparts, but they typically don’t score as much in non-ppr, and only the best come close to matching in ppr. The more “safe” picks you want for your starting pool, the more receivers you should target early in your draft. you won’t get any of them if you have a top 3 pick.
You can use my levels to determine how deep you think the position is, but after thinking about this for six months (that’s right, while you were living your life, I was studying these guys), I feel pretty good about it. Wide receivers in the first four or five rounds are good enough to start. I’m also confident that the receivers at the fifth and sixth levels make up a group of emerging and dormant candidates who have enough potential to justify starting. You should find the entire class to your liking and may even decide to wait to recruit your third or fourth receiver.
that last question? I’m not you, so I can’t exactly answer that. But if you’ve played fantasy football for a while, you know there are receivers with at least a decent lead in resignations each week. no one who establishes himself in a starting spot, but someone who offers the opportunity to score a touchdown, go 70 yards, etc. The better we (and we) are at finding them, the less urgency you need to do a deep draft.
Just know that almost every fantasy coach will draft at least one very good wide receiver before the end of round 3. That doesn’t mean it’s a mistake to lock up two of them if you want to differentiate your lineup, but that’s a move. which is best reserved for ppr formats and smaller leagues (10 or fewer teams).
but the safest plan on draft day is to pick enough receivers from the top five or six levels to cover your starting positions, then another two or three for the bench. and always remember that receivers who tend to play better in fantasy are those who regularly get a piece of the target from good quarterbacks. When drafting a receiver who doesn’t yet have stud status, ask yourself if he has the potential for 120 targets (to produce 70+ receptions) and/or eight touchdowns. those are the stats we’re looking for from the non-obvious guys in round 6 and beyond. the more players you get, the more likely you are to compete for a trophy in December.
what about zero wr?
Imagine not drafting your first receiver until after 50th overall. that’s the kind of plan you’ll have to follow if you insist on drafting two running backs and a tight end with your first trio of picks. this is doable in smaller formats other than ppr and has the possibility to have a big hit, especially if you pull the lever on the right receivers starting in Round 5. Heath Cummings lays out a plan here.
So, which fantasy football busts should you avoid in your draft? and what qb superstar is not a reliable qb1 option? Visit Sportsline now for fantasy football cheat sheets from the model who described Allen Robinson’s disappointing season, and find out.