odds between the state of fresno and the state of san diego
first place in the west mountain west division is up for grabs on saturday night when fresno state makes the short trip to san diego to take on the aztecs.
fresno state beat nevada and carson hard, 34-32, last weekend, but this weekend is going to be a completely different opponent considering san diego state is one of the running offenses strongest in the country.
Jake Haener hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near the one you’ll see on Saturday night, so the Bulldogs are in for a really tough test drive.
San Diego State closed out the Air Force triple option last week, holding the Falcons to 14 points and just 259 total yards. The Aztecs are undefeated this season and they proved they are for real last weekend in Colorado Springs.
brady hoke has relied on his elite defense to get the aztecs across the finish line, but this will be a unique test, facing one of the best quarterbacks in the mountain west.
fresno state crime
Haener and the Fresno State passing attack have been incredible this season, ranking sixth in passing success rate.
haener is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, but his pff passing rating is only 80.6 with 20 big throws compared to 10 plays worth losing.
Also, what’s troubling is that when he faced an elite secondary in Wyoming (fourth in coverage, per pff) in Week 7, he really struggled, throwing for just 96 total yards on 28 attempts.
San Diego State’s high school is seventh in terms of coverage, so I don’t think we’ll see Haener have the success he’s used to on a Saturday night.
fresno state doesn’t have a running game to speak of. The Bulldogs are rushing the ball for 4.0 yards per carry and rank outside the top 100 in rushing hit rate, offensive line yards, run block (per pff), and EPA/rush.
well guess what, san diego state is also one of the best rushing defenses in the country, so it’s going to be very difficult for fresno state to move the ball efficiently on saturday night.
fresh state defense
While Haener grabs all the headlines, Fresno State’s defense has been very good this season.
The Bulldogs rank 15th in EPA/game allowed and only allow 5.0 yards per game. However, in this matchup, they’ll have to be able to stop the run because the state of San Diego runs the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the country.
Fresno State has been good against the run this season, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and ranking in the top 40 in EPA/Run Allowed, Hit Rate Per Run Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
However, this will be the best running game Fresno has seen since facing UCLA in mid-September.
san diego state crime
San Diego State’s offense relies on having an effective running game. the Aztecs run the ball on 67.6% of their plays, one of the highest percentages for a triple-op offense in the country.
Last weekend against a good Air Force front seven, they rushed the ball for 4.0 yards per carry. They will face a Fresno State led defense that is on par with the Air Force.
The rushing attack is led by Greg Bell, who has rushed the ball for 4.9 yards per carry and has the Aztecs ranked 32nd in rushing hit rate, 4th in rushing explosiveness and 43rd in EPA/rush.
With Lucas Johnson now at center, San Diego State’s passing attack hasn’t been as efficient. Johnson is only averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, but he hasn’t been asked to throw that ball that much.
against the air force last weekend, he was 11 of 13 for 72 yards. However, he will face one of the best secondaries in the Mountain West because Fresno State ranks in the top 15 in pass rate allowed and coverage, per pff.
san diego state defense
San Diego State has one of the best defenses in the country under hoke, and is in the top 10 against both the run and the pass.
San Diego State is third in the country in rushing hit rate allowed, third in defensive line yards and third in EPA/career. the Aztecs only allow 2.7 yards per rush.
However, Fresno State runs the ball at the 11th-lowest rate in the country, so the forward seven won’t be asked to stop the run very often on Saturday night.
the san diego state secondary is not allowing any passing successes to opposing offenses. the Aztecs only allow 5.2 yards per attempt, which is fourth in college football. they also rank third in epa/pass allowed and rank as the seventh-best coverage unit, according to pff.
San Diego State also ranks second in the country in havoc, 10th in final drives and fourth in big plays allowed. so, it will be very difficult for haener and company. to move the ball.
Analysis of the confrontation between the state of fresno and the state of san diego
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fresno state vs san diego state betting tip
the san diego state defense is absolutely legit and should be able to stop haener and the fresno state passing attack.
the question is: will they be able to move the ball efficiently against fresno state’s front seven and control the pace of this game?
I have San Diego State projected at -4.78, so I think the Aztecs at home have some value at -1, and I’d play them down to -2.5.
See also: Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings