nevada state fees vs. san diego
We’ll be treated to a nice Saturday night when Nevada heads nearly 500 miles south to Carson, California to take on the state of San Diego. a small mountain to the west after dark, so to speak.
The stakes are certainly high when it comes to qualifying West of the Mountain. the winner will go into sole possession of first place in the Western division and will control his own destiny for a spot in the conference championship game.
for what it’s worth, sdsu travels to unlv and hosts boise state to close out the season, while nevada hosts the air force and travels to colorado state.
If the winner of this weekend’s game comes back up, Fresno State (3-2) could come out on top as the Bulldogs have head-to-head wins over the Wolf Pack and Aztecs. It should be an exciting race to the finish.
So, who has an advantage on Saturday night? let’s take a closer look.
can you cast snowfall on the sdsu secondary?
nevada has an explosive offense, but completely one-dimensional. It’s led by potential future NFL quarterback Carson Strong, who has plenty of guns to look at from the outside.
However, Nevada just can’t run the ball. the wolf pack averages just 2.8 yards per rush, which ranks 125th in the country. they also rank in the bottom 10 nationally in rushing yards and chance rate. the offensive line just can’t generate a push up front.
That said, they don’t even try to run the ball in their passing offense, averaging just 25.4 rushing attempts per game. only three teams average less.
Considering Nevada can’t run the ball against anyone, don’t expect anything on the field against an ever-elitist defense run by the state of San Diego. The Aztecs are one of only nine teams in the country to have held teams below three yards per carry.
so it all comes down to strong’s ability to move the ball through the air against the san diego state secondary. The problem is that we don’t know much about this Aztec passing defense.
He has tremendous metrics but has faced one of the easiest opposing pass offense schedules in the country. just take a look at some of these teams and their respective passing yards per game rankings:
- arizona (86)
- utah (85)
- new mexico (126)
- san jose state (76)
- air force (129)
- hawaii (48)
and that list doesn’t even include fcs towson. Furthermore, Utah played almost the majority of that game with Charlie Brewer, who has since been transferred. cameron rising came in midway through the third quarter and threw three touchdown passes.
the only two teams sdsu has faced in that top 40 ranking in passing attack are fresno state and new mexico state. Jake Haener threw for 300 yards in a 10-point win, and NMSU quarterback Jonah Johnson even threw for 300-plus.
This San Diego State secondary lost some key pieces last season, so it could be much more vulnerable than all-season metrics suggest.
can the state of san diego cut snowfall on the ground?
Nevada’s pass defense has been a strength both on the back end in coverage with the likes of Berdale Robins and in regards to chasing down opposing quarterbacks.
the wolf pack ranks in the top 30 nationally in both passing efficiency defense and sack rate. they have players along the defensive line (dom peterson, kameron toomer, tristan nichols, daniel grzesiak) who excel at creating pressure but struggle to defend the run. It’s the same story with the linebacking corps.
Nevada’s 4-2-5 base defense does a good job of limiting explosive plays and creating havoc between pass rushers and defensive backs. however, he can be divided from one side of the field to the other by opposing running games, as evidenced by a 120 ep per run rating.
The bundle also ranks outside the top 100 for both opportunity rate and stuff rate.
can the san diego state offense be used? I’m not completely sold. he’s an anemic unit averaging 5.0 yards per play (109), which I’ve ranked outside the top 100 nationally.
don’t expect it to do anything through the air. the Aztecs have one of the least explosive air strikes in the country. they average just 137 passing yards per game. For reference, only Colorado and New Mexico average less among non-triple-choice teams.
now workhorse greg bell, who can run behind an offensive line that rates fairly well in run blocking, can power the aztec offense. for the season, they’re averaging 4.5 yards per rush, which is close to average.
On the surface, that’s a good sign against an atrocious Nevada run defense, especially with the Aztecs recently switching to a more mobile quarterback in Lucas Johnson, who is far more adept at creating with his legs than he is throwing. the ball.
However, if you dig a little deeper, most of that quick success came early in the season. here’s what san diego state has done on the field in the last four games:
- 39 carries for 157 yards vs. air force (4.0)
- 33 carries for 165 yards vs. fresno (5.0)
- 36 carries for 70 yards vs. sjsu (1.9 )
- 43 carries for 128 yards vs. Hawaii (3.0)
That’s a total of 151 carries for 520 yards or an average of 3.4 yards per rush, which would put him in the bottom 20 nationally. Teams have started to fill the box to sell against the run, knowing that San Diego State doesn’t have a down pass attack to speak of.
I hope Nevada does something similar.
the god of the punt
You can’t talk about the state of san diego this year without mentioning punter extraordinaire matt araiza, who has been the team’s most valuable player by far. As a voter for the Ray Guy Award, I can tell you that it’s yours to lose. He is having one of the most dominant punt seasons in NCAA history.
He averages 51.9 yards per punt. To put that in perspective, the NCAA single season record is 50.3 and the NFL record is 51.4. And it’s not just the overall average, it’s the ability to completely change the field with 15 60+ yard clearances on the season, which is a new NCAA record.
He even kicked a ball 90 yards in the air last week in Hawaii.
And yes, he has multiple punts of 80+ yards.
just with the punt it’s worth about three points to the margin just an unheard of number for a punt although a punt is obviously much more important to a bad offensive team like san diego state that relies on their defense and field . position. only three quarterbacks in the country have a higher epa (expected points added) per pass than the epa for araiza clearance.
Did I also mention that he’s been good at kickoffs and kicking field goals? arguably worth four points to sdsu’s differential as their most valuable player.
hope teams adjust a bit and get punts back. under the right circumstances, that could provide an opportunity for an elite punt returner to make a big return. Earlier this season, the Utah Band, one of the best in college football, took an 80-yarder home after a 60-yard Araiza punt.
That’s certainly on the line Saturday, as Nevada has one of the most explosive punt returns in the country in Romeo Doubs, who actually scored a touchdown on his first punt return as a freshman in 2018.
I can’t wait to see the chess match between those two, as field position will be a big key, as always, with sdsu. and a broken return for a td can make the difference when playing the Aztecs.
analysis of the state showdown between nevada and san diego
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the states of nevada and san diego match up statistically:
Nevada State Vs. san diego
These two teams are polar opposites. Nevada just wants to pitch and play fast, while San Diego State wants to run and play slow.
This will come down to how effective Nevada can fill the box to improve their run defense and how successful a strong can be shooting against an Aztec secondary that hasn’t been tested much this year.
Personally, I think this state of San Diego is overvalued in the market. has four wins over teams ranked outside the top 100 and has gone 4-1 against the rest of its schedule with all four wins coming by one possession, including one in double overtime and one in triple overtime.
I wouldn’t bet three points on sdsu’s horrible offense in a game that I think is a real coin toss. Also, remember that this game is played in Carson, two hours from the Azteca campus, which certainly diminishes the advantage of playing at home.
From a line value perspective, in my opinion, the play is snowy.
However, there is some critical injury news I’m waiting for. nevada star tight end cole turner (who i think will play at the next level) took a hard hit to the head last week against san jose state and had to leave the game.
He is on concussion protocol and his status is unknown as of Saturday. it would be a huge loss for the packet passing attack. Doubs is the deep threat, and Turner is the type of reliable possession that Strong relies on for third-down and red-zone opportunities.
if turner can play, i think the wolf pack does it four years in a row with a win over san diego state, and he’ll probably have to come in by a margin of five or less, as he has in each of the last three. victories.