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    College Football Odds & Picks | UCLA vs. Oregon Betting Preview

    oregon vs. ucla

    the long story of chip kelly and oregon football will write another chapter in week 8. the former oregon head coach led the ducks to the 2010 bcs championship game in a loss to a cam newton-led auburn team .

    Kelly would go on to win a Rose and Fiesta Bowl before going on to a position in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles. Sanctions to the Oregon program were rumored to be the reason for his departure from college football, but a brief stint in the NFL put the coach back in the Pac-12 with UCLA in 2018.

    Oregon has beaten UCLA twice during Kelly’s campaign in Westwood.

    Reading: Oregon vs ucla football predictions

    the ducks were on track to make the college football playoffs with a road win over ohio state in week 2. however, beatings by stony brook and arizona hid areas of the defense that stanford I was looking to explode.

    Cardinal defense limited the Ducks in scoring position while finding great success on the chain movement. Stanford had more than two first downs on 7 of 13 possessions and nearly doubled the national average for methodical drives, defined as a possession of 10 or more plays.

    kelly will be looking to implement a game plan that includes dominating the trenches on both sides of the ball.

    oregon offensive

    The best weapon for the Ducks’ offense is finally back on the field.

    offensive coordinator joe moorhead has been cleared on the sidelines after missing the stanford game due to emergency surgery. the protocols kept him in the box against cal.

    Oregon ran at a 24-second-per-play rate for the first four games of the season, but without Moorhead on the sidelines, he ran at a 22-second-per-play rate.

    While the total for this game continues to rise above 60, the market is reacting to moorhead’s return but ignoring that the pace may return to September numbers.

    Oregon will look to set up the race with quarterback Anthony Brown and several running backs.

    Head coach Mario Cristobal mentioned that Trey Benson would be in the rotation and receiving rushing attempts after receiving just three touches this season.

    Without CJ Verdell and a handful of offensive linemen looking to return to full health, owning the trench is the Oregon offense’s biggest handicap.

    oregon defense

    See also: Texas vs. West Virginia – Game Recap – November 20, 2021 – ESPN

    The defense has struggled to produce in all facets except pass rush.

    Rated in the top 35 by pff, pass-rusher kayvon thibodeaux ranks as the 14th best individual defensive player in college football in terms of pass rush productivity.

    Hope is high that the Oregon defensive end will be the first pick in the 2022 nfl draft.

    The problems start when an offensive line is able to suppress the pass rush. Oregon’s defense is outside the top 100 in tackles, havoc and pass coverage.

    Cristobal touched on the complexities of UCLA’s offense, from lopsided sets to quarterback mobility.

    the biggest concern may be fill rate and rushing yards, both areas where the oregon defense falls outside the top 65. if ucla wants the lineup and running the ball, the oregon defense may not offer resistance.

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    ucla offense

    The Bruins have one of the most dynamic sets of players at skill positions in terms of the running game.

    transfer from michigan, zach charbonnet ranks seventh among all running backs in race standings, according to pff. Of all running backs in college football with a minimum of 70 rushing attempts, Brittain Brown ranks in the top 15 in yards after contact.

    If the Ducks can stop Charbonnet and Brown’s one-two punch on the ground, quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has the sixth-most scramble yards in the fbs.

    stuff rate, a stat that measures how often a run attempt is stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, may be the most important stat in this game, as the Bruins rank third in the nation in that area.

    Oregon could have a long night in the rush defense category, ranking 72nd in defensive rating and 82nd in rush defensive explosiveness. Oregon also has a tackling rating outside the top 100, so there’s no doubt that UCLA will break big runs against the Ducks.

    ucla defense

    As for defense, defending the run is just as important. Ducks run at 60% and stay on game plan despite injuries to running backs and offensive linemen.

    See also: Report: Kicker Joey Slye is designated to return from IR ahead of the Cowboys game – Hogs Haven

    Oregon had plenty of success on the ground in a narrow win over Cal, but the Bears’ attacking defense is outside the top 90 in hit rate. meanwhile, ucla ranks a top 10 defense in rushing yards and 57th in rushing hit rate.

    The Bruins are certainly not the Chicago Bears of 1985, but the defense will be able to stop the Ducks.

    analysis of confrontation between oregon and ucla

    toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how oregon and ucla statistically match:

    oregon vs ucla betting prediction

    Oregon’s defense must keep its head in a spin against a tenacious running game from UCLA.

    kelly has implemented an offense that has carried out 10 different personnel this season. Although most of it has been in sets of one and two running backs, the Bruins have shown brilliant plays with three running backs and two tight ends, all the way to an empty set.

    Complicating things further are the 50% splits in pre-snap movement, rally vs no rally, and shotgun vs pistol distribution. In 13 third-down plays against LSU, Kelly ran nine different formations.

    The downside in this game is how successful Oregon will be in passing, as UCLA’s defense is outside the top 100 when an opposing offense falls behind.

    On the season, Oregon is 7% better than the national average in passing success rate, averaging 6.1 yards per play. UCLA’s defense ranks 93rd in opponent third-down conversion rate, indicating the Ducks will be successful in getting into scoring position if the offensive line and running backs can create yards after contact.

    the action net projection has ucla as a 2-point favorite with a total of 57.

    The move in the market total is due to an expected increase in efficiency with Moorhead back on the sidelines, a valid scenario that means Oregon will be able to change direction on offense if the first quarter doesn’t play out as planned .

    In a game where two teams will look to outdo each other physically in the trenches and allow the running game to control the clock, UCLA is the more dominant team.

    moorhead will find ways to get the ball downfield in a suspect ucla secondary, but thompson-robinson’s scramble ability is what makes the difference.

    The quarterback has thrown just two interceptions this season and hasn’t turned the ball over in the past two games. Invest in the quarterback who has seen positive improvement in turnover-worthy plays after previously recording 23 fumbles and 20 interceptions prior to 2021.

    See also: Top recruit Arch Manning starts June school visits at Georgia | FOX Sports

    choose: ucla -2 or better

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