I finally had a good week with the overall picks in week 3 so let’s move forward to week 4 a very tough layout for picking nfl games. virtually all spreads are under a touchdown, with only the pack/slap line going into double digits.
The loss of the Dolphins on Thursday means only one undefeated team remains, Philadelphia, and we continue to see an outrageous amount of parity throughout the league.
It just makes choosing a game list that much harder, but let’s try it anyway.
all nfl odds are through caesars sportsbook
nfl week 4
vikings in saints (london)
Sunday, 9:30am ettv: nfln | transmission: fubo (click here)
London football at dawn! what you never missed and yet somehow didn’t realize what you wanted. the first international game is always so jarring: it’s like when there’s a random college football game at 11am. m. and you are completely baffled. this line is extremely stinky. Minnesota is less than three-point favorites against a Saints team that needed a miracle Week 1 rally against the Falcons to avoid 0-3 with a lousy loss to Tampa Bay and a very lousy loss to the Panthers. this feels like a situation where andy dalton starts and we have spiderman in a meme to the death with him fighting the kirk cousins ​​in a not quite prime time slot. weird feeling of the saints stealing something here even though the vikings are the better team overall.
the pick: saints 21, vikings 17props, best bets: saints +2.5
bills in ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. m. ettv: cbs | transmission: paramount+ (click here)
If this game doesn’t turn into a crazy shootout with one of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen emerging at the forefront of the MVP race, it’s going to be really disappointing. The Bills and Ravens have defensive issues and are two of the most explosive teams in football. both were roundly criticized for their accuracy and passing skills entering the 2018 draft and both have emerged as clear dominant forces. rashod batemen and devin duvernay are answering questions about baltimore’s receiving corps. bills also have some deadly fast scoring options. it’s probably square, but the top feels like a lock here.
the choice: ravens 35, tickets 31bets: ravens +3, more than 51
browns in hawks
Sunday, 1 p.m. m. ettv: cbs | transmission: paramount+ (click here)
are falcons better than we thought? This will be an interesting test game against a fairly large persistent 2-1 Brown team with Deshaun Watson returning. the browns are second in quick attack dvoa and the hawks are in the bottom five in quick defense per dvoa (worth noting: it’s usually best to wait four weeks for adjusted stats based on football outsiders reevaluating biases preconceived). cleveland’s defense has been lacking and it’s hard to imagine myles garrett playing this sunday; It’s great news that he’s doing well the way he is. Despite the rushed matchup, Atlanta will stay in this game and maybe find a way to steal it.
the peak: falcons 24, browns 21bets: pass
bears against giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. m. ettv: fox | streaming: fubotv (click here)
Looking at this total of 39.5, it’s hard to tell if it’s just these two crimes or the possibility of hurricane weather coming in that direction. my thought is the first. the bears are an unlikely 2-1… but so are the giants! I’ve heard several people suggest (say hello to my new friends at rga) that daniel jones played his best game as a pro against the cowboys on monday night. he was pressed 26 times on 36 setbacks, just an unbelievable number. Roquan Smith is on an absolute spree right now with 27 (!) tackles in his last two weeks. he’s the difference maker here, just like the bears run game.
the choice: bears 17, giants 14bets: bears
jaguars into eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m. m. ettv: cbs | transmission: paramount+ (click here)
Two of my three favorite teams of 2022 facing off in a tough game to pick. The Jaguars are the only team in the entire NFL with an offense and defense in the top five by DVOA. doug pederson aka “num” aka (not urban meyer) has a great time with jim harbaugh in san francisco vibes 2011. but i’m not sure this week will be the peak for the jags, even in a revenge game by Doug Pedersen. eagles are just really good, and their defense can block people late when clicked.
the peak: eagles 27, jaguars 17bets: pass
sea hawks and lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. m. ettv: fox | streaming: fubotv (click here)
the lions are a fun team, but there are many injuries in attack: d’andre swift and amon ra st. brown are out, and the defense is capable of letting anyone in through the back door. We could look back at this game and point to the seventh seed in the NFC.
the choice: lions 27, seahawks 24bets: pass
boots in jeans
Sunday, 1 p.m. m. ettv: cbs | transmission: paramount+ (click here)
Justin Herbert has to remain a question mark, almost as big a question mark as keeping Justin Herbert in the game when the Chargers were up by not just three but four points. brandon staley is a good coach, but it seems like he ditched him early this season and maybe that has him a little shaken. there is no reason why herbert should have played as much as he did. the texans are 0-2-1 but have been in every game they’ve played. i think they’re live for a surprise here, courtesy of a great game by damion pierce.
the pick: texans 27, chargers 24bets: texans +5
planes in steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. m. ettv: fox | transmission: paramount+ (click here)
the steelers are not good on offense, but the jets are really bad on offense. the under here is probably a pretty good look even if the total is less than 40. there’s a chance this could become the kenny pickett game, though mike tomlin seemed pretty determined to continue rolling with mitchell trubisky as his quarterback field. I’m sticking with the steelers, but I’m by no means sure of that.
the selection: steelers 20, jets 15bets: no bets
titans on foals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ettv: fox | streaming: fubotv (click here)
This is a big AFC South game – the winner is likely to end up gaining a bit of an edge over the Jaguars, assuming the Eagles take care of business. indy has the best roster/team overall i think. the titans may have a lot of internal pressure with jeffrey simmons and that should upset matt ryan enough to keep this division battle close.
The Pick: Colts 20, Titans 17Stakes: No Stakes
commanders in jeans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ettv: fox | streaming: fubotv (click here)
dallas is a remarkable 2-1 despite throwing cooper rush at qb in recent weeks. Washington got trampled by the Eagles last week, but I’m not sure they were as bad as they looked against Philadelphia. the eagles might just be the best football team. the cowboys defense could be a big problem pressure-wise here, but i think washington can keep it close enough with carson gonz throwing the ball downfield in the second half. It’s also fair to wonder if we might see some tweaking of the dash defenses and maybe a fix.
the pick: wft 21, cowboys 17bets: n/a
cardinals on panthers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ettv: fox | streaming: fubotv (click here)
Nasty little plot twist for the Cardinals who find themselves 1-2 and underdogs on the road against a team of Panthers no one thinks is particularly good. Carolina could be 2-1 pretty easily though, and the defense is playing at a pretty high level. kyler murray and the cardinals offense is operating unsustainably and against a panthers defense with enough speed to contain and chase kyler murray, this is a place for matt rhule to shift some of the pressure from fcf (fired head coach) on Kliff Kingsbury , whose offseason contract extension looms uncomfortably right now.
the pick: Panthers 20, Cardinals 17bets: pass
broncos in assailants
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ettv: cbs | transmission: paramount+ (click here)
the raiders are an incredibly desperate team, the only 0-3 team in the nfl, preparing to host the… first place denver broncos. russell wilson has had a lot of trouble with deep passes and he and nathaniel hackett just can’t get on the same page. Decision making in Hackett’s game has obviously lacked some competition. so give me the raiders to find a way to win this game, although it’s hard to be confident in their defense. davante adams needs an iconic performance here.
The Pick: Raiders 31, Broncos 24Stakes: Raiders -3
packers in patriots
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ettv: cbs | transmission: paramount+ (click here)
mac jones is “day to day” according to bill belichick, who had some interesting media sessions this week. there are rumors that he wants to force him out on the field for this game, but I’m not sure it matters when you look at the handicap here. aaron rodgers on a bigger stage (key cbs game sunday afternoon) against belichick with the packers offense starting to get going and the defense playing outstanding football. The Patriots just aren’t very good right now and Brian Hoyer against an injured Mac won’t change much.
the pick: packers 24, patriots 7bets: pass
buccaneer chiefs
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ettv: nbc | streaming: fubotv (click here)
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Revenge Game! bosses are favored here, but it could simply be the result of the expectation that the game will move to a neutral site. That’s not the case, with Tampa free from Hurricane Ian much sooner than expected. Mike Evans is back, Tom Brady is in prime time at home and the Bucs’ defense should still be able to give Mahomes some attacks.
the peak: buccaneers 28, bosses 27bets: buccaneers
rams in the 49ers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. m. ettv: espn | streaming: fubotv (click here)
I really wanted the rams to be the best bet this week, but kyle shanahan’s story of dominating l.a. it just has me too worried. The Rams got their offense against Arizona to 7.4 yards per play last week. San Francisco offers a much tougher defensive test. Unfortunately, so do the Rams, and Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t looked too good since he replaced Trey Lance. the worst is the absence of trent williams. I’ll buck the trends and take the rams to steal this one on the road in prime time.
the pick: rams 24, 49ers 21bets: pass