College Football Odds & Picks | Betting Preview for SMU vs. TCU

    smu fees vs. tcu

    Texas hosts a lot of big games this weekend, but the battle for the iron skillet remains one of the most intriguing matchups around.

    These two programs do not like each other. plain and simple.

    Reading: Smu vs tcu football predictions

    just ask smu wide receiver rashee rice, who was quoted this week as saying “nobody comes to texas for cash; they’re coming for dallas.”

    I will say that fort worth isn’t exactly at the top of my list of places to visit, but that seems a bit harsh for the rice. add the fact that both groups remain undefeated through three weeks of play, and the stakes have risen a bit higher.

    The Mustangs traversed Abilene Christian and North Texas to begin their 2021 campaign and then survived a close battle at Louisiana Tech last week with a big win on a Hail Mary conversion as time expired.

    tcu outscored duquesne to start the year and then pulled out a tight game against cal in week 2. the horned frogs were off last week, so gary patterson’s club has two weeks to prepare for the mustangs .


    mustang crime

    Shane Buechele has moved on to pro football, but this pony offense hasn’t missed a beat so far in 2021. Transferred Oklahoma quarterback Tanner Mordecai has already thrown for 1,023 yards in three games, throwing 16 touchdowns with only two interceptions.

    ulysses bentley iv has been a force on the ground, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and leading a balanced mustang running attack.

    It will be fascinating to see if this offense can continue to put up these kinds of numbers when it moves up a weight class this Saturday against the tcu defense.

    mustang defense

    On the other side of the ball, the smu defense still leaves a lot to be desired. The Mustangs gave up 506 yards of total offense against North Texas and followed that up last weekend by giving up 483 to Louisiana Tech.

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    This unit ranks 88th in rushing yards and 74th in successful passing, which stands out to me because he hasn’t been particularly strong at stopping the run or the pass.

    Couple that with a chaos rating of 96, and it’s hard to feel good about smu making things difficult for max duggan and the horned frogs offense.

    crime of horned frogs

    A year ago, tcu’s offense was never able to get into full flow due to some injury issues. through two games in 2021, that’s been a different story.

    duggan is using his arm and legs to find success, throwing four tds so far and rushing for two. Duggan still needs to clean up his decision-making a bit, but all the tools are there for the junior to have a great season.

    zach evans leads a formidable horned frog attack. The sophomore rushed for 190 rushing yards against Cal, and the unit as a whole ranks 20th in the nation in rushing yards.

    look for this offense to try to dominate a smu front that has had trouble stopping the run.

    horned frog defense

    can’t imagine patterson was too pleased with his defense after the cal game. Patterson has made a career out of suffocating defenses that chase down opponents in unique schematic ways.

    the golden bears had 442 yards of total offense and converted nearly 50% of their third down attempts against tcu.

    with an extra week to prepare for the smu matchup, hopefully patterson will get back to basics with this group and have them ready for saturday.

    This is still a very talented unit, despite some brutal numbers at the moment. horned frogs are outside the top 100 in line yards and final defensive drives, albeit at a small sample size.

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    I trust patterson to make some significant adjustments before the contest on Saturday.

    pairing analysis between smu and tcu

    change the dropdowns below to hide or show how smu and tcu match statistically:

    data via college football data, footballoutsiders, sp+, pff, and sportsource analytics.

    Looking at this matchup from both sides of the ball, I think the horned frogs have a decided advantage. I trust Patterson with two weeks of preparation to correct some of the defensive mistakes he has seen to start the year.

    Patterson has always employed an offensive defense style, and will look to attack mordecai and make things really uncomfortable for him. tcu may very well deliver a big play or two, but they’ll also take ponies out of hours and get their fair share of stops.

    on the other hand, i have no confidence that the mustang’s defense will be able to stop the dynamic duo of duggan and evans. smu isn’t equipped to slow down evans in the trenches, and duggan is very mobile in the rpo game.

    expect the horned frogs to set the tone on the ground early on and then look to take off the top of the smu defense later in the game with duggan’s arm.

    smu vs. tcu betting selection

    I understand that strange things can always happen in rivalry games, but I feel very comfortable putting the points in this place. I took the frogs midweek at -9 but I’m still backing a play until -11.

    Patterson has been a monster coming off a break throughout his coaching career.

    the horned frogs offense should be able to get what they want when they want it. the iron skillet returns to fort worth, and maybe that will make someone want to visit cowtown.

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    choose: tcu -9 (play until -11)

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