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    How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

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    The only college football resume that matters is the one from selection day.

    Don’t get me wrong: current curricula are useful for discussion and analysis. but the ultimate goal is to make the playoffs, and the easiest way to do that is with a host of achievements, once the conference championships are over. twenty-four of the 28 teams that have made it to the college football playoffs have had a top-four strength record at the time of selection. and is the most important factor in the allstate playoff predictor.

    Reading: Strength of record college football

    as a refresher: record strength is the probability that an average team in the top 25 can achieve a team’s record given the particular schedule that team has faced. So, for example, Michigan State currently has a record strength of 19%, which ranks second, meaning an average team in the top 25 would have a 19% chance of going 8-0 against the schedule. of the spartans, just as they did.

    but again, we want to know the strength of the record on pick day, so we thought we’d ask: what are the chances of a contender having a top-4 sor on pick day given a record in particular? can a 13-0 cincinnati break the top four? Is 12-1 Oregon assured of a playoff-caliber resume? Let’s dive deeper, in the order of current cfp ratings.

    1. Georgian Bulldogs

    See also: Clemson football has no players opt out for Cheez-It Bowl

    top four chance at 13-0: >99%

    See also: Dawn Staley – University of South Carolina Athletics

    top four chance at 12-1: >99%

    top four chance at 11-2: 41%

    It’s going to be a huge bummer if georgia doesn’t have a superior resume when all is said and done. bulldogs have so much wiggle room that they could even lose twice and still have a chance… although they probably don’t need to find out.

    How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

    2. Alabama Crimson Tide

    12-1 chance in the top four: >99%

    Top four chance at 11-2: 94%

    wow, that second number is very interesting. There was a backlash to Alabama’s current rank at No. 4 given a loss … I can’t even imagine how college football fans, especially non-seconds fans, would feel if an 11-2 crimson tide team got a berth. but in both cases, the strength of the record supports the selection of alabama.

    • How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

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      alabama is currently no. 4 in sor with a loss. At 11-2, his record range average strength would be 3.2, with, again, a 94% chance of being in the top four in sor.

      how can that be? Alabama plays a tough schedule. the fourth hardest overall schedule in the country, in fact. by the time selection day arrives, an 11-2 alabama team will (almost certainly) have played four games against the top 13 fpi teams: florida, auburn, texas a&m, and, and this is the biggest, georgia. /p>

      I don’t want to spoil what comes later in this story, but the chance that an average team in the top 25 will go 11-2 or better against the Alabama schedule is 22%. what’s the chance that same average top-25 team will go 13-0 against the cincinnati schedule? 26%.

      will the committee give alabama as much leeway as sor? it’s hard to say. but from a resume standpoint, the crimson tide would have a strong case, even with a second loss.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      3. Michigan State Spartans

      See also: Clemson football has no players opt out for Cheez-It Bowl

      top four chance at 13-0: >99%

      See also: Dawn Staley – University of South Carolina Athletics

      top four chance at 12-1: >99%

      someone is going to emerge from the big ten. and if that team can do it with just one loss, they’ll have a top-four resume. that seems clear.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      4. Oregon Ducks

      top four chance at 12-1: 72%

      hmmm. I think this number here highlights how strange it was for Oregon to be ranked in the top four now, with record strength at No. 10. What this number shows is that even if the rest of the season goes perfectly for the Ducks and they finish as 12-1 Pac-12 champions, they would still need help from somewhere else.

      So what couldn’t happen?

      reading the tea leaves, it seems the ducks should avoid the following that also exist on selection day: georgia one loss or better, alabama two losses or better, big ten champion one loss or better, and an undefeated oklahoma. Also, if the same scenario happened, but Oklahoma had a loss, it would be very close between the first and the ducks, in terms of resume.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      5. Ohio State Buckeyes

      top four chance at 12-1: 97%

      just like the spartans, ohio state will have a top four resume if they win from now on. the only reason your projected sor is slightly lower than michigan state’s? The Buckeyes don’t get the benefit of playing themselves, the third-best team in college football, per FPI.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      6. Cincinnati Bearcats

      Top four chance at 13-0: 55%

      this is the big one. the answer to the question: will 13-0 be enough for the bearcats? Unfortunately, this number is less of an answer and more of a coin toss. it might be enough to boast a playoff-worthy résumé. or could not be. It depends on what happens elsewhere. those listed team and record combinations with over 90% chance of finishing in the top four? bearcats don’t need more than three of those to come to fruition.

      what can’t happen in cincinnati? It’s a similar story to a 12-1 Oregon, except the Bearcats are probably a bit behind that 12-1 Ducks team and a 12-1 Oklahoma.

      The good news for Cincinnati is that, with some chaos, the Bearcats really do have a shot at being in the top four on draft day. That’s something UCF never managed to accomplish in its seasons as a playoff contender.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      7. Michigan Wolverines

      See also: Dawn Staley – University of South Carolina Athletics

      top four chance at 12-1: >99%

      same as the other big ten teams: a 12-1 champion big ten team will have a playoff-caliber resume.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      8. Oklahoma Sooners

      See also: Clemson football has no players opt out for Cheez-It Bowl

      top four chance at 13-0: >99%

      Top four chance at 12-1: 85%

      say what you will about how oklahoma got their victories, but going undefeated always leads to an impressive resume. the question is: what do we do with oklahoma at 12-1? what’s interesting here is that the earliest would probably be neck-and-neck with oregon 12-1…although from the beginning the committee has shown a preference for the ducks over the earliest.

      Oklahoma’s schedule is weak enough to control only its own destiny, résumé-wise, by winning. but a single loss probably wouldn’t keep him out, at least on paper.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

      See also: Clemson football has no players opt out for Cheez-It Bowl

      top four chance at 13-0: >99%

      top four chance at 12-1: 37%

      This is where we see that a weaker schedule is costly. Wake Forest may have a playoff-caliber resume if he wins, but a loss would likely push the Demonic Deacons to the outside looking in. That’s a reasonably strong difference from, say, Oklahoma, which has an 85% chance of making it to the top. four record strength with the same record.

      the starkest contrast comes against 11-2 alabama, and this just goes to show how difficult tidal timing is. again, that’s not to say that an 11-2 alabama necessarily enters, it just indicates that it’s objectively harder to go 11-2 on the alabama schedule than it is 12-1 on the wake forest schedule.

      How strength of record could determine the College Football Playoff field

      10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

      top four chance at 11-1: 32%

      The lack of a 13th game certainly hurts the case for the struggling Irish here. And so, to reach that record strength of the top four, Notre Dame will not only need to win, but create chaos elsewhere. The Fighting Irish are looking for, say, a Big 12 champion with two losses, Oregon to lose another game and Cincinnati not to go undefeated. It’s not impossible, but they certainly need help sneaking into that no. 4 strong points of the record.

      lauren poe contributed to this article

      See also: Miami Hosts Star Studded Coaches Clinic and Twin Brothers Make Dual Commitment – Football Hotbed

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