College Football Betting: Week 11 Best Picks and Advice – Stadium

    During the college football season, stadium staff will provide weekly betting picks and tips at this roundtable. here are our thoughts on the week 11 list.

    Note: Ben and Nate will discuss all of their NFL and college football betting on the Sharp Lessons podcast. subscribe to spotify and apple to watch episodes and follow stadium betting on twitter for more sports betting content.

    Reading: Week 11 college football picks

    1. what is your favorite choice against the spread?

    alex symonds, senior stadium producer: oregon (-13.5) over washington state.

    i’m in love with football in oregon oc joe moorhead. their offenses at penn state, mississippi state and oregon hurt me right where they bite me: they’re physical from the start, they vary their looks while utilizing a dominant personnel package, and they get the ball to the offense’s biggest playmakers at times. critical.

    Last week, the Ducks were dealing with terrible weather against Washington, so Moorhead’s offense kept it simple: 56 rushing attempts for 329 yards with just 20 passing attempts in a 26-16 win. Washington State’s defense allows 4.5 yards per rush attempt and ranks 89th in the FBS in third-down defense. hope oregon gets an early lead and smothers the cougs for coverage.

    ben wittenstein, stadium social media producer: michigan (-1) over penn state.

    if this was a night game on happy valley, i’d probably be on psu. But playing Happy Valley during the day is like seeing a haunted house with all the lights on, it’s not that scary. Michigan is simply the best team here. They’ve improved their passing game to the point where they might be one of the most balanced teams in the country, and I don’t think the Nittany Lions’ offense can put together enough of an offense to overwhelm Michigan’s defense.

    This lineup is certainly smaller because Michigan is on the road, but an old-time regular game for a team already used to playing in front of 100,000 fans means Michigan might even be a bit underrated. give me the corn and the blue.

    kate constable, stadium hostess & digital producer: cincinnati (-23) over south florida.

    Cincinnati has failed to close the gap in each of its last three games, but if they want to make the playoffs, they’ll need to not only win, but win big. Style points will be important for the Bearcats in these final weeks of the season as they show why they are a top-four team.

    Their eight-point win over Tulsa last week raised some questions about their ability to take on a top 5 program. However, I expect Cincinnati to put any concerns to rest this week with a big win over an inconsistent team from South Florida that is giving up almost 500 yards of total offense per game.

    nate jacobson, stadium sports betting analyst: virginia (+5.5) on notre dame.

    my bet on this game hinges on whether virginia qb brennan armstrong can play after suffering a rib injury in the cavaliers last game at byu. I’m optimistic Armstrong will gut him in a primetime game against a top 10 opponent at home. I was heartened to see Armstrong make an appearance at a restaurant grand opening in Charlottesville last weekend. If Armstrong plays, Virginia will have a chance to win outright because her offense will be able to score points against a Notre Dame defense that could be without star safety Kyle Hamilton for another week.

    2. what other bet do you like?

    such as: tulane (+3) over tulsa.

    See also: College football Power Rankings after Week 2

    These teams are a combined 4-14 this season, so I’m not going to watch this game, and I suggest you avoid it if you can. however, i think there is value on the tulane side in this matchup and i am happy to field goal with the home team. Tulane’s rookie QB Michael Pratt has looked like a rookie most of this season, but in the past three games he’s averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt and hasn’t thrown an interception. I’m relying on Green Wave’s passing attack to take advantage of a Tulsa defense that is coming off a physically and emotionally draining loss to Cincinnati.

    bw: purdue (+12.5) 1h above the state of ohio.

    Let’s get a little crazy here and bet a first half spread. Boilermakers are no strangers to surprises this season, so at least I’m confident they’ll push the buckeyes in the first half. It seems possible that this is the kind of game where Ohio State is challenged in the first half, only to be bolted out of the locker room in the second.

    This isn’t just a hunch either. Purdue has given up nine points per game in the first half and scored close to 15. Osu is averaging about 25 points per first half, so if both teams hit their point average in the first half, Purdue covers. The Boilermakers also have a deep threat weapon, David Bell, to make big plays against an average Ohio State secondary. i don’t know if i trust purdue to keep osu for all four quarters, but i think they can keep them for at least two of them.

    kc: less than 54.5 in the state of tcu-oklahoma.

    tcu is coming off a big win over baylor so this could be a little disappointing for the horned frogs where we see their offense crumble. They will probably still be without their starting QB Max Duggan and top running back Zach Evans again on Saturday. While that didn’t prove to be an issue against Baylor, the Horned Frogs now face the best Big 12 defense in Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have only allowed six total points in the past two weeks and haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any game this season.

    nj: penn state (+1) over michigan.

    The Big Ten have earned a lot of respect in the college football playoff standings, but Penn State has been left out of the party both weeks. It’s a little surprising to me because the Nittany Lions have beaten two of the top 20 teams in this week’s standings in Wisconsin and Auburn. penn state was ranked as high as no. 4 in the ap poll last month before a loss back then-no. 3 Iowa happened because QB Sean Clifford left the game with an injury. Then they lost to Illinois in a game where Clifford didn’t look 100 percent. if clifford didn’t get hurt in iowa, penn state would probably only have one loss and the point margin for this game would look a lot different.

    michigan controversially went from michigan state to no. 6 in the college football playoff rankings, despite the Wolverines recently falling to their in-state rivals. Michigan also has some injury issues on offense with QB Cade McNamara and RB Blake Corum.

    3. Which underdog +200 or more on the moneyline has the best chance of an outright surprise?

    such as: rutgers (+215) over indiana.

    rutgers is 4-5 in 2021 and trying to reach a bowl for the first time since 2014. who else remembers the scarlet knights’ thrilling 40-21 victory over north carolina in the quick lane bowl that season? just me? ok then.

    the reason i bring that up is because rutgers goes to bloomington with a lot to play for this weekend, while indiana is ready for the offseason in a year that has been nothing short of a disaster. i’m sure greg schiano will have the scarlet knights ready to chase the hoosiers from kickoff, and if iu goes down early, i don’t know how motivated they’ll be to stage a comeback. at this price i’ll happily bet new jersey state university.

    bw: rutgers (+215) over indiana.

    I hate doing this to my alma mater (and I really hope I’m allowed back on campus after this), but you have to bet. hoosiers just aren’t good. His QB situation is a mess, his OC struggles to call consistent drives, and his defense has been plagued by injuries all season. Rutgers is bad, but if any team this week is going to be upset as a heavy favorite, it’s Indiana.

    kc: east carolina (+170) over memphis.

    See also: What Happened to XFL Star &039He Hate Me&039 Rod Smart?

    There really isn’t a +200 underdog I like this week, so I’m breaking this rule a bit. memphis is coming off a big win against then-no. 23 smu, so this is a potential spot of disappointment for the tigers. might as well see this as a sandwich place with houston on deck next week. East Carolina led Houston to OT, and three of their four losses this season have been by just one touchdown. With a win, the Pirates would qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2014, adding a little extra motivation on Saturday.

    nj: minnesota (+170) over iowa.

    rutgers would have been my choice, but since alex and ben already gave them, I’ll also break this rule with a loser shorter than +200. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing loss at home to Illinois in Week 10, just days after they were ranked No. 20 in the starting college football playoff standings and gave head coach p.j. fleck a seven-year contract extension.

    This wasn’t the first game the Golden Gophers lost at home as heavy favorites this season, as they also fell as 30.5-point favorites against the Bowling Alley. But the following week, Minnesota went on the road and bounced back against Purdue. This feels like a similar situation when they hit the road after a bad loss and face an Iowa team that will likely start as backup QB Alex Padilla. I’ll take Minnesota against the spread, and they’ll have a great chance to win this game with a low total of 37.5.

    4. what’s one bet you’re tempted to make this week, but know you probably shouldn’t?

    such as: kentucky (-21) over vanderbilt.

    Last week, Kentucky put on an offensive clinic against Tennessee by amassing 35 first downs and 612 total yards on 99 plays while possessing the ball for 46:08. there’s only one problem: the wildcats lost to vols 45-42!

    I want to bet the uk will take out their frustrations on vandy this week in a drubbing, but kentucky’s inability to create explosive plays keeps me away. the wildcats’ 35 plays of 20-plus yards are tied for second-worst in second place. Last week’s loss is a prime example of why possession time numbers can be misleading, and I can’t trust the UK’s offense at the moment.

    bw: alabama (-51.5) over the state of new mexico.

    Would it be fun to bet on this? I think so? bama is so dominant that they could cover without breaking a sweat here, but I don’t know if they’re going to want to. the wide variety is tempting because it’s a fun story to tell that you bet on a team that was favored by over fifty burgers but it’s a bit too risky.

    kc: ohio state (-21) over purdue.

    couldn’t have been more wrong in my assessment that michigan state learned from iowa’s loss at purdue and did not ignore the boilermakers last week. After beating the Spartans, Purdue has now spoiled the season for two top ten teams. Surely the state of Ohio won’t let the same thing happen to them, right? a loss to go on, or even a game that’s too close for comfort, could ruin your chances of staying in the college football playoff. I want to take the horse chestnuts to cover, but is it the third time the charm for the tinkers?

    nj: tennessee (+20) over georgia.

    I previously used tennessee in this section this season, including last week when they were pick’em on the road against kentucky. The Volunteers ended up winning the game and are on the cusp of bowl eligibility in Josh Heupel’s first season. the vols will likely have to wait a week for their sixth win as they host no. 1 Georgia.

    however, this is an important point that has tempted me to take tennessee because qb hendon hooker could do enough to help volunteers cover against the bulldogs’ vaunted defense. I’ll stay away for now because Georgia’s offense is improving as QB Stetson Bennett gets more comfortable leading the unit.

    More: NFL Betting: Top Picks & Week 10 Tips

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