During the college football season, stadium staff will provide weekly betting picks and tips at this roundtable. here are our thoughts on the week 4 list.
Note: Ben and Nate will discuss all of their NFL and college football betting on the Sharp Lessons podcast. subscribe to spotify and apple to watch episodes and follow stadium betting on twitter for more sports betting content.
Reading: Week 4 college football predictions
1. what is your favorite choice against the spread?
alex symonds, senior stadium producer: texas a&m (-5.5) over arkansas.
the aggies were winners for me last week against new mexico (and they completed the game in under three hours, which is always appreciated) and i’m ready to back jimbo fisher’s team on saturday against the hogs. Texas A&M’s defense is real: The Aggies rank 5th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings, 14th in FBS in sack rate, and should be able to outplay QB KJ Jefferson in passing. The change Sam Pittman has engineered in Arkansas in just 22 months has been remarkable, but the Aggies are too strong and too deep.
ben wittenstein, stadium social media producer: ucla (-4.5) over stanford.
after successfully riding with the bruins in week 1 and then fading them in week 3, this week i’m getting back on the train on the road against stanford. sure, stanford beat usc, which i think was more of a fluke than anything, and beat vandy on the road, but they also had average field position at the 37-yard line on that one. UCLA’s running game will be good enough against 98th-ranked Stanford’s run defense, and their efficiency in the red zone at 6th will help them ward off the Cardinal.
kate constable, stadium hostess & digital producer: western kentucky (+9) over indiana.
I bet against indiana last week and that ended in my favor, so why not do it again? although, don’t worry, ben, this time i like that indiana wins, i just don’t think they’ll cover it. After giving up a 14-0 first-half lead en route to a loss to Cincinnati last week, the Hoosiers are back traveling to western Kentucky for a night game. The Hilltoppers have one of the most powerful offenses in the country, led by transfer QB Bailey Zappe, who has thrown for 859 total yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in two games. With this kind of outing, Indiana really needs to limit WKU’s time of possession, which starts with Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. clinging to football he has already thrown six interceptions this season.
nate jacobson, stadium sports betting analyst: texas a&m (-5.5) over arkansas.
This is clearly my main bet on the college football board and I like the aggies on anything but a touchdown. It’s a perfect opportunity to buy low on Texas A&M and sell high on Arkansas in a neutral arena. the reason we’re getting a discount on the aggies is haynes king started qb broke his leg in week 2 and zach calzada is now under center. Calzada struggled when he was thrown into a narrow victory against Colorado, but he bounced back with a week to prepare against New Mexico last week. Even if Calzada has problems on this one, I’m confident that the texas a&m defense will make life difficult for the arkansas offense as alex mentioned earlier. I’ll gladly take a cheap number at Texas A&M against an overpriced Arkansas team leaving campus for the first time this season.
2. what other bet do you like?
such as: west virginia (+17) in oklahoma.
i made this game oklahoma -13, so i’m happy to take the extra points and west virginia in this matchup. neal brown is quietly building a solid program in morgantown after dana holgerson left the program high and dry, and brown has an all-purpose stud in leddie brown at his disposal (357 total yards, six total TDs in three games) against the first. You’re lucky to be 3-0 after sleepwalking against Nebraska, and I’m confident the back door will be open if West Virginia needs a late score to cover this number.
bw: more than 49.5 at rutgers-michigan.
In three home games this year, Michigan has averaged 47 points per game. And sure, Rutgers’ defense will be a step up in class, but his quick defense is pedestrian and with the recent suspension of CB starter Max Melton, there’s room for the Corn and Blue to attack. With coach Jim Harbaugh no doubt feeling the heat of the hot seat, we’ve seen him easily get up the scoreboard, with 63 points against Niu and 31 against Washington. give me final scores of 34-17 and a top win.
kc: more than 61.5 in texas tech-texas.
These are two very offensive teams, ranked in the top half of the conference in offensive scoring. Texas will be looking to establish the running game early and should be successful against a Red Raiders defense that has yet to face a particularly strong running game. Offensively for Texas Tech, RBS Tahj Brooks and Xavier White have shown they can do some damage on the ground, both averaging seven yards per carry. combine that with qb tyler shough, who completes 67% of his passes, and this texas coaching team has the ability to score points against anyone.
nj: utsa (+3) over memphis.
This is a great place to fade from Memphis due to disappointment after their big win over Mississippi State last week. that was memphis’s biggest game of the year because a sec team traveled to their stadium and both schools are very close geographically. looking deeper into the scorecard, the tigers were lucky to win the game. Mississippi State led 26-12 on first down and led 468-246 total yards. Memphis started the game with a 49-yard fumble return for a touchdown and had a rare punt return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. utsa is a very strong team this season in the united states conference led by qb frank harris, and they won in illinois three weeks ago. I like the roadrunners to win outright.
3. Which loser of +200 or more on the moneyline has the best chance of an absolute surprise?
such as: western kentucky (+290) vs. indiana.
let’s take a moment to bask in the afterglow of last week’s colorado (+400) state selection in toledo. drink it up!
Go ahead, this week I’m going to try my luck with western kentucky hosting indiana. QB Bailey Zappe (11.5 yards/pass attempt this season) leads one of the most entertaining units in the group of 5, and Houchens-Smith Stadium will rock for WKU’s annual “blackout” game. Indiana is reeling after starting the season 1-2, and QB Michael Penix Jr. it just doesn’t look good (six interest in three games). i’m betting on a few more iu turnovers to help the hilltoppers score the upset.
bw: western kentucky (+290) vs. indiana.
It pains me to do this to iu, but they’ve looked so bad this season offensively that winning this at home seems like a possibility. Starting QB Michael Penix is clearly not 100 percent, but head coach Tom Allen is still sticking with him as the starter. the defense is solid enough, but the hoosiers have struggled on the road at times.
kc: baylor (+220) over the state of iowa.
nj:texas tech (+300) over texas.
It’s always a big game for texas tech when they take on the biggest program in the state. This game is especially important after the Red Raiders blew a 15-point lead with less than three minutes remaining and fell to the Longhorns in overtime last season. Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough is a potential NFL prospect and transferred to school from Oregon for games like this. i’m also not convinced about texas right now in steve sarkisian’s first season after his loss to arkansas in week 2. i can see this as a big 12 entertaining shootout so i’ll take the odds 3/1 on raiders red to win outright.
4. what’s one bet you’re tempted to make this week, but know you probably shouldn’t?
such as: clemson (-9.5) in the state of north carolina
clemson’s offense has been horrible to start the year despite having an incredible track record. He is averaging just 3.7 yards/game against two FBS opponents. while qb d.j. uiagalei has struggled, it’s clemson’s offensive line that bears most of the blame for the slow start. another sign we’re in uncharted territory with the tigers: if this line closes below 10, it will be only the second time clemson has been favored by single digits in their last 30 acc games (clemson hasn’t been an underdog regular season since 2016). why am I hitting you over the head with these stats? This has all the hallmarks of a classic “buy low” spot in the tigers, but I’m not quite ready to put points down the road with the Dabo Swinney team just yet.
bw: rutgers (+20) over michigan.
this is very tempting because i think rutgers has gone under the radar as a solid to good team this season. they are 3-0 and appear to have a formidable defense. Michigan has also shown, under Harbaugh, to sometimes falter. however, with some off-field issues plaguing the scarlet knights and an away game in the big house, I’ll probably stay away from one side on this one.
kc: notre dame (+6.5) over wisconsin.
During Notre Dame’s near surprise at the hands of Toledo in Week 2, I tweeted that I would never bet on the Irish again. however, I am definitely tempted to take notre dame with the points because I see this as a low scoring game that is decided by a field goal. I also think Notre Dame’s pass defense, which looked solid last week against Purdue, will give Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz some trouble as he has yet to get into an offensive groove. All that being said, I will stay true to my word and stay away from this game. notre dame has already given me too many headaches.
new jersey: tennessee (+18.5) over florida.
This is the perfect time to shake Florida off a two-point loss at home to world no. 1 al. Florida may stay home, but is now a heavy favorite against a Tennessee team that had an easy game against Tennessee Tech last week. what keeps me from volunteering is that the line was +20 a few days ago, so I’m not getting the best of the number. I also don’t like the idea of backing Tennessee, which is going through another rebuild with a first-year head coach in Josh Heupel. tennessee lost to pittsburgh in week 2 and pittsburgh lost at home to western michigan last week, so i wonder how bad tennessee could be going into conference play.
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