Savvy fantasy writers know that when it comes to quarterbacks, it’s not about chasing one of the first off the board or deliberately waiting until the double-digit rounds. it’s about maximizing value by recruiting a great fantasy quarterback in a great place that’s practically impossible to believe.
did you recruit tom brady or justin herbert last year? both were round 6 picks. both were loaded with incredible potential (one with much more history than the other). both went three full rounds after josh allen. While Allen was the best fantasy quarterback in 2021, he was less than a full point per game better than Brady and Herbert. tell me who had the best value.
Your goal isn’t to try to steal a quarterback, and you obviously don’t want to take one too soon. It’s that v-word (value) you should aim for. it’s the foundation of almost every pick you’ll ever make, but it’s easier to do it with quarterbacks because there are so many good ones and almost all of them are underrated compared to running backs and pass receivers.
so when is it too early to take a call sign? You’d give up value if you took a Tier 1 quarterback before Round 3. This speaks specifically to Herbert, who had the quietest 5,000-yard season in history. he’s dropped as far as round 6 in some of our drafts, just ridiculous value for a guy who could lead the entire fantasy in points per game. I’d rather serve him than take Allen.
The same can be said for brady, who is my favorite tier 2 quarterback but could drop below 80th overall. he might be the only quarterback I’m not taking into account, but that’s based on what his adp is right now. I hope it goes up and is a value in round 6.
all quarterbacks up to level 3 are expected to be picked at the end of the 11th round in one qb leagues. that means even if you’re never comfortable with a draft value for a quarterback in your first eight picks, you still need to find someone with good value.
dave’s favorite strategy if you start a qb: wait until there’s really good value at quarterback and do it, even if it’s round 5. don’t hesitate to pick a second quarterback if you are a properly ranked second or third year player and you have seven or more bench spots.
dave’s trey lance strategy: due to his running talents, big arm, and improved perspective for the 49ers passing game, i think lance has more upside to be a winner in the league than anyone else beyond the top 100 overall. if I get to that point without a quarterback, I keep him. and then I will immediately look for a second quarterback to pair with as a safeguard for my squad. One combination I particularly like: Lance (who plays the bears and seahawks in weeks 1 and 2 before a tough schedule begins) and Kirk Cousins (who plays the lions in week 3).
dave bets on young qb strategy: lance has big matchups in weeks 1 and 2, and justin fields has big matchups in weeks 3 and 4 (texans, giants). it’s possible to select both young dual threats, plot them out for the first month of the season, and by week 5 have a good idea of who you can trust moving forward. if one hits, you’re doing great. if both are correct, you have exchange pieces. if neither is right, there are always resignations.
dave’s favorite strategy if you start with two qbs: position depth disappears quickly in superflex and two qb formats and everything you just read basically flies out the window . I don’t like to mess around with these formats and will spend two of my first three picks on quarterbacks just to have two quality starters (and hopefully up-charged studs).
- more levels: rb | wr | you | k/dst